El Niño in Kenya: Preparing for Heavy Rains, Flooding and Health Risks

Oct 12, 2026 · 1 min read · 58 views

Kenya is preparing for possible El Niño-related flooding during the 2026–2027 season, with forecasts indicating that parts of eastern Africa could receive more rainfall than usual between October and December. The warning comes after widespread flooding during Kenya’s March–May 2026 long rains, when 27 counties were affected, 122 people lost their lives and more than 42,000 people were affected.

El Niño is a climate pattern linked to unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Its effects vary from one region to another. In eastern Africa, however, strong El Niño conditions—especially when combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole—are often associated with wetter-than-normal conditions.

Kenya’s experience during the 2023–2024 El Niño floods shows the possible scale of the threat. According to an International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies final report, flooding occurred across 46 of the country’s 47 counties. The disaster caused 490 deaths, displaced more than 729,000 people and damaged homes, schools, infrastructure and livelihoods.

The effects are not limited to flooded homes. Farmers may lose crops, livestock and stored food. Businesses can be forced to close, while damaged roads interrupt the movement of people and essential supplies. Schools and health facilities may also become difficult to reach.

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El Niño in Kenya: Preparing for Heavy Rains, Flooding and Health Risks

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